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September 1, 2010 | Plane crash in developing countries 13 times likelier than in US, First World | Washington: If you were planning to fly in a developing country, the results of this new study might change those plans, for the risk of airplane crash is 13 times more than that in the US and other First World countries. The more economically advanced countries in the Developing World have better overall safety records than the others, but
even their death risk per flight is seven times as high as that in First World countries. Prof Arnold Barnett at MIT's Sloan School of Management calculated
that the chance of dying on a scheduled flight in a First World nation like the
U.S., Japan, or Ireland was 1 in 14 million. However, airlines of economically
advancing countries in the Developing World such as Taiwan, India, and Brazil,
the death risk per flight was 1 in 2 million. And in less economically advanced
Developing-World countries, the death risk per flight was 1 in 800,000. Barnett
points out that the distinction he makes is "between safe and very safe, and not
between safe and dangerous." He does note, "it is not uncommon for a month to
pass without any fatal passenger-jet crashes anywhere in the world." The research
that indicates that, in terms of deference to authority and "individualism," the
economically advancing Developing-World countries are on average far from those
in the First World but almost identical to other Developing-World countries. Barnett
concedes that he should "not get too caught up in speculation," but notes that
one possible explanation for why the economically-advancing countries did not
fare better is that "their economic shift towards the First World has not been
accompanied by a corresponding cultural shift." The study appears in the current
issue of Transportation Science, a journal of the Institute for Operations Research
and the Management Sciences.
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