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Interventions
stop flu spread if imposed quickly Washington:
After analysing a disease spread simulation, scientists have said that flu interventions
must be imposed as soon as possible, if they are to be effective. They showed
that staying at home, closing schools and isolating infected people within the
home should reduce infection. However, the measures would only be effective if
they are used in combination, activated without delay and maintained for a relatively
long period. For the study, professor George Milne and his colleagues from the
University of Western Australia (UWA) simulated the effect of social distancing
on the spread of a flu virus within a small town. Their research used a detailed,
individual-based model of a real community with a population of approximately
30,000 ( Albany , Australia ) using simulation software engineered by UWA's Dr
Joel Kelso. "Our results suggest a critical role of combined social distancing
measures in the potential control of a future pandemic. Non-pharmaceutical social
distancing interventions are capable of preventing less-infectious influenza epidemics
and of significantly reducing the rate of development and overall burden of the
worst epidemics," said Milne. The scientists studied the effects, alone and in
combination, of workplace non-attendance, school closure, isolating infected family
members inside the home and reducing contact within the wider community. Milne
added: "While such draconian measures seem unlikely to be mandated given their
impact on personal freedom, they appear to have a key role to play in delaying
the development of a 'worst case' influenza epidemic. They may be critical in
holding back an epidemic until vaccines are deployed on a sufficient scale that
subsequent relaxation of these rigorous measures will not result in a consequential
acceleration in the scale of the outbreak". However, the measures described, must
be employed as soon as possible after the first individuals within the population
have been infected, if not preemptively. It was found that, for an outbreak of
influenza approximately as infectious as the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, the combination
of all intervention measures must be introduced within 2 weeks of the first case
appearing in a town or city, to prevent an epidemic developing. Delays of 2, 3
and 4 weeks resulted in final attack rates of 7 percent, 21 percent and 45 percent
respectively. Milne concluded: "Social distancing interventions are important
as they represent the only type of intervention measure guaranteed to be available
against a novel strain of influenza in the early phases of a pandemic. They may
be readily activated and thought of as a first line of defence in developing and
developed countries alike". The study is published in the open access journal
BMC Public Health. -May
1, 2009 | |
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