US midterm elections: Will Republicans clip Biden's wings?
There is a historical pattern of anti-incumbency winning, ie the President's party
losing, in midterms. On top of that Biden's approval rating has also plummeted
and the earlier momentum built up over abortion and gun violence has given way
to issues like inflation, spiraling crime rates and illegal immigration. Economy
takes precedence over social issues. However, the contests are nip and tuck, there is uncertainty who wins in the toss-up.
A media analysis sees Republicans winning the House with the Democrats losing
20 seats. In the Senate, a majority could give them (Republicans) the power to
block Biden's nomination of judges, any new abortion law and gun controls etc.,
checkmating the Prez. They would even go for Biden's impeachment (in
retaliation)! But that kind of majority may be elusive. Because the Republicans
are a disunited political party right now.
by RM Nair
WASHINGTON, D.C., Nov 4: Early voting in the US midterm elections of November
8 is going on under the shadow of unprecedented inflation. President Joe Biden
cast his vote in his hometown of Wilmington in the eastern State of Delaware
last Saturday.
All the 435 seats in the House of Representatives are on the ballot, as also
35 (from 34 States) of the 100 Senate seats. Every time, that is every two years, a third of the seats of the upper chamber goes to the polls. A Senator serves a six-year term. On the other hand, every two years there is election to the full House. Five of
the six non-voting members of territories are also elected this time.
Thirty six States and three territories will also have elections alongwith
the midterms for Governors. There are also State legislatures, school boards
and other local offices that will be on ballots. Notable Guv contests are Democrat
Stacey Abrams against Republican Guv. Brian Kemp in Georgia, Republican Tudor
Dixon vs Democratic Guv. Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan and Democrat Beto O'Rourke
opposing Republican Guv. Greg Abbott in Texas.
Midterms take place halfway through the President's term of four years. Biden
was elected in 2020, and so the midterms happen this year.
At present Democrats have control of both the chambers of Congress, apart from
the presidency. Losing either will erode Biden's powers in the remaining two
years. In the Senate both are 50:50 (Democrats 48 with two Independents supporting)
but the Vice-President's tie-breaking vote can tilt the balance in favour of
the Democrats. In the House too the balance is fragile: 220-212. There are two
Democrats and one Republican vacancies. The majority mark is 218 in the House
currently led by Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Complex numbers & Senate toss-up
In the present 50:50 Senate, of the 65 Senate seats not up for grabs, 36 belong to the Democrats and 29 to the Republicans. That is, of the 35 seats on the ballot, 14 are currently held by the Democrats and 21 by Rebublicans. Therefore, in the midterm the Republicans must win more than 21 of the 35 going to the polls. Six Republican Senators
and one Democratic Senator are not seeking reelection. That is 15 Republicans
and 13 Democrats are running for reelection. So most of the Republican new faces
will have an uphill task. Small advantage for Dems!
Post-election scenario
There is a pattern that the ruling party takes the beating in the midterms
- history charts pointing to an anti-incumbency push. It will not be surprising
if the Republicans wrest control of Congress, especially as there is seemingly
widespread voter discontent, giving tough time to the Democrats. Besides, Biden
has currently a low approval rating. However, the contests are very close and
there is uncertainty who wins.
If winning either chamber, Republicans will throw a spanner in Biden's works.
Like any abortion Bill to negate the Supreme Court ruling of last summer will
fail. They would even be able to impeach Biden. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, has
already declared the intention of some Republicans to go for Biden's impeachment
in retaliation. They can challenge the search of former President Donald Trump’s
private club and residence in Florida. They can also block Biden's nominations
for appointments of federal judges countrywide with a Senate majority. During
Trump's time they had occasion to make three nominations to the apex court.
Electoral forecast
The main issues are Inflation, crime, illegal immigration, voting rights, threat
to democracy, abortion, gun violence, Ukraine, among others.
FiveThirtyEight forecast says the Republicans will win the House and the Democrats
the Senate. A Reuters analysis sees a Republican wave and loss of 20 seats of
the Democrats in the House.
Most pollsters say the Republicans have taken the lead recently while a month
ago the Democrats seemed to have had the advantage especially after the Supreme
Court overturned Roe v. Wade and over issues of gun violence and democracy.
Falling gas prices and Biden’s surprising legislative successes also contributed
to that wave in favour of the Dems. But today, pollsters say the Republicans
have turned the tables on their rivals. They have inflation and spike in crimes
to beat the Dems with. Almost certainly they will take the House.
Moreover, the President’s party always loses in midterm elections. Biden's
approval rating too is down to 40 % now.
Dems are on the defensive in New York, Rhode Island, California and Oregon.
In the key Senate races, like Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona Dem
is neck and neck with the Republicans who have weak candidates in the running.
The Senate races in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, Florida and Ohio are toss-up.
Michigan and Kansas may favour the Dems as abortion stays an issue there.
However, economy has come to take precedence over social issues like abortion.
Many have voted already. Till Thursday, 32 million had voted early. However,
the turnout in midterms is usually low.
Biden's claims
After casting his vote Biden said midterms are not a "referendum" and that
he is "feeling good".
But Biden claims the economy is doing better on his watch. “The economy is
up, price inflation is down, real incomes are up, gas prices are down and need
to come down further,” Mr. Biden told a rally of supporters in New Mexico Thursday.
Biden also sought credit on his administration’s student debt relief programme.
Kamala Harris boasted of Biden administration policies over child tax credit,
the infrastructure bill and appointing the first Black woman to the Supreme
Court.
Election laws
Election laws change from State to State vis-a-vis voter registration, absentee
ballots, early voting, in-person voting etc.
What is absentee in-person voting? “Absentee in-person” refers to the
process of voting in-person any time during the 45 days before Election Day.
It is commonly referred to as “early voting.”
Where can one vote early? One can vote early at one's local general
registrar’s office. There may also be additional locations where one can vote
early. No application is required to vote early. The voter will simply go and
vote with an ID.
Absentee voting: Citizens who are registered to vote may apply for an
absentee ballot and can vote by post. Provisions change from State to State.
Tracking: One can track absentee mail ballot both ways.
Total all-party spending for the midterm is calculated at $16.7 billion, helped
by billionaires. It was $14 b in 2018.
The incident has triggered a debate on social media whether the officer refused to take orders from a party leader or he was accused of any corruption, some netizens justifying the handling in either case, that Ratnakar was blocking public welfare work! It is true the Govt machinery has been the enemy Number One of the people of this country, existing for itself and for these politicians, for well over seven decades. India will never make an inch of progress - real progress, not make-believe-progress - unless and until this machinery is eliminated.
ANALYSIS: There have been cases of Britons going to Switzerland to get rid of a miserable life. Now once the House of Lords also passes the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill, terminally ill Britons can call it quits with the help of a medical practitioner here itself. But the measure when comes into practice, will have very serious social consequences, it is feared. There won't be comparisons, even as tropes in Latin American folklores. The worst case scenario is of those who are not terminally ill also trying to misuse the provision to leave this world early when life with dignity is not available. But that is, in fact, a political question and not a moral imbroglio!
The CCTV footage and the video circulating on social media do not indicate any serious abnormalities in takeoff or descent, it has been confirmed. The disaster is becoming curiouser and curiouser. The flight path was not curvy. And the aircraft maintained a steady, gliding descent with its nose straight and the wings perfectly level. The pilot's distress call does not specify what prevented lift and climb-out. Here are some expert opinions. The sole purpose is to raise travellers' awareness about air travel.
Many of the victims were charred beyond recognition, making identification difficult. Three hundred nineteen body parts have been sent for DNA matching with relatives to determine the identities.
A comment on social media on Kanimozhi's answer on the question of national language read: "Daughter of Kalaignar M. Karunanidhi. Delivered the Birthday Present to her Father!!" (Karunanidhi was born on June 3, 1924)
(Today's headlines )
Trump said, "Elon is not really leaving" and will be "back and forth" to the White House because DOGE is his "baby." "I think he’s going to be doing a lot of things.”
Musk wrote: "My scheduled time as a Special Government Employee comes to an end... The @DOGE mission will only strengthen over time as it becomes a way of life throughout the government." Now on it will be on auto-pilot.
PROGNOSIS: DOGE was prematurely born to protect the country by aborting an impending socio-economic disaster which very few people could see coming.
Although its immediate job was to save American taxpayers billions by slashing waste, eliminating fraud, cutting Government bloat and ensuring utmost efficiency in administration for the good of the people.
(Today's headlines )
"Coming from a system like in England, empowering," she says she never had an idea of this sort of experience... being asked to “socialise with middle-aged men” who financed the event...humiliating...
Originally from Junagadh, Gujarat, Pataudi was relocated to Etawah Lion Safari in September 2019 before being transferred to Gorakhpur Zoo in 2021. Recently it was receiving treatment for pancreatic and liver infections. After tigress Shakti died in the zoo on May 7 due to bird flu, Pataudi was shifted to Kanpur. Some birds are also reported to have died mysteriously around Gorakhpur. All zoos in UP are closed for fear of a bird flu outbreak.
Three other animals too had died - a tiger, a leopardess and a female wolf. Wolf Bhairavi died last Saturday, leopardess Mona died the Thursday before that and tiger Kesari died on March 30. Some of them had Shakti's symptoms but the cause of death has not been confirmed yet.
As tourist inflow is an indicator of normalcy returning to an erstwhile terrorist infested Valley, the Government has been trying hard to make everything travel-friendly, launching lot many projects and bringing Kashmir on the national rail map that physically completes the process of Kashmir's integration with the rest of India. And that defeats the designs of Pakistan eyeing Kashmir and simply explains a recrudescence of terrorism in J&K.
"It's a big victory not just for Tamil Nadu but for all Indian States. DMK will continue to struggle for and win State autonomy and Federal polity," Chief Minister MK Stalin said.
Of 2.08 km in length, it features 99 spans and a 72.5-metre vertical lift span that rises up to a height of 17 metres, facilitating smooth movement of ships while ensuring seamless train services to the holy town of Rameswaram on Pamban island.
ANALYSIS: There is a lot of hue and cry around the world over Trump's tariffs. But tariff, simply put, is a tax. But unlike tax, it affects the exporting country too. Domestic prices will go up for some time. Nothing more will happen, good or bad!
What motivated Trump's newfound policy, apart from being a stunt to justify his existence in the White House, is a false realisation that increased tariff will make foreign goods prohibitive, thereby boosting local production, and create more jobs, and more prosperity will ring in! If that is true, India would have been shining by now: Producing own Rolls-Royce La Rose Noire Droptail and Scotch Whiskies! And what about coconut and palm oil by America!
(Today's headlines )
PROGNOSIS: It looks a Real New Trump is emerging - courageous, balanced, powerful and disinterested. Determined to save his country from the cliff, he has done quite a few draconian things that will reduce the burden of debts of the Federal entity, like the golden handshake, stopping senseless funding, pulling out of a worthless WHO. Shutting the Education Department is another. On the other hand, running it is also not the Centre's job either (We will convincingly elaborate it in the next chapter).
In India the scene is just the opposite. Centralisation is the core agenda and identity of the ruling dispensation without which it has no existence, or in other words, it exists for that set of schemes only. A realisation of this never dawned upon any Opposition party in 2014 or any time thereafter, what to talk of being able to see it coming 70 years ago! The consequence of all this violation of basic natural law of the universe we cannot predict.
THE AMERICAN CONUNDRUM: Political venom has migrated to top echelons in the US. It was reported last year NASA has become politicised, vitiated. But NASA refuted the charge. How Boeing developed a glitch but its unmanned return was smooth. When Suni-Wilmore were stranded last June, why the return was set for February? Because that comes only after January 20! SpaceX called the shots, for itself and for Trump. Then the mission was manipulated for March for a better bargain! In between, what made Elon Musk 'predict' during campaign if Kamala Harris wins he would be in jail. In politics, it is said, "the only rule is there are no rules." Difficult times for Americans too.
The terminations are part of a large-scale exercise going on all across Fed departments and organisations to reduce wasteful Government expenditure as decided by a Trump in a mess gone berserk, and improve administrative efficiency following the whims of billionaire and his associate Elon MusK and his DOGE. It has not been shared how terminations are going to raise the efficiency bar! It looks like Trump has stolen some of the prescriptions meant for India. But the American problems are quite different.
Suddenly these colonial clerks feel this effortless, little rule will tremendously enhance security and convenience for the railway passengers manifold. More stations will be covered in the next 77 years! (Also See:
New Delhi station stampede... What went wrong?)
) 
